Predictions of past and future climate distribution of the Orthosia songi Chen et Zhang (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) based on the MaxEnt model in China

Predictions of past and future climate distribution of the Orthosia songi Chen et Zhang (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) based on the MaxEnt model in China

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ABSTRACT: The Orthosia songi Chen et Zhang is one of the important leaf-eating pests of eucommia.In this paper, combined global climatic data with the distribution points of Orthosia songi and identified the key environmental factors affecting its distribution by knife cutting, PCA principal component analysis and Spearman correlation analysis.Used MaxEnt to fit the potential distribution areas in the past 730 sunken lake road and future, and marked the offset mass points to analyse the migration trend of Orthosia songi distribution.The results showed that in 1970-2000, the 10 key variables were Tmin01, Prec02 ,Bio03, Bio04, Tmax01, Slope, Aspect , Tmax04, Bio02 and Tmax06 ; in 2021-2100, the factors were Bio02, Tmin10, Bio04, Tmax06,Prec09, Bio03,Prec03, Tmax03, Slope and Tmax10.

Potential suitable areas for Orthosia songi in China were divided into 4 classes, with the unsuitable areas having the highest proportion (78.76%) and the high-suitable areas were lowest (5.45%).The fitness zone mass point of Orthosia songi was in Hubei Province in 1970-2000, and then shifted overall to the 5326058hx southeast, and shifted to Hunan Province in 2021-2100.